Archive for December, 2009

MBS CLOSE: 4.5 At Par Signals Profit-Takers

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Posted To: MBS Commentary
MBS opened and traded the AM at their best levels of the day with Par on the 4.5 even couched in a supportive guise. But as the noon hour approached, it was back to yesterday's closing levels for MBS as profit taking came, saw, and kicked a moderate amount of posterior right up until the auction. During the same time, Tsy's opened with similar strength, and backed up even more than MBS relative to yesterday's close of 3.81, but at just over 3.82, not by much. The pre-auction selling was not such an unfamiliar circumstance, but the lack of volatility thereafter was. Bonds rallied immediately followed the auction and never again came close to those weak points of the day. In fact, they put in level after miniature level of support as MBS pushed back to close at 99-30 with tsy's…(read more)
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Original post by Matthew Graham

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Mortgage Rates Snap Six Day Losing Streak

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
The six day streak of rising mortgage rates finally stalled out yesterday! Although mortgages started the session on a negative note, mortgage-backed securities prices managed to recovery all early losses following a slightly above average 5 year Treasury note auction. After the auction, several lenders repriced for the better which moved mortgage rates a few basis points lower. Remember, when MBS prices fall, mortgage rates rise. I think this chart will help visualize the relationship between MBS prices and mortgage rates. When MBS prices are high, mortgage rates are low. When MBS prices are low, mortgage rates are high. The economic calendar is mostly empty on this last full trading day of 2009. The normally scheduled weekly release of the Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Application…(read more)
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Original post by Victor Burek

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MBS MORNING: Rates Rally Extends But Progress Stalls Before Auction

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Posted To: MBS Commentary
Good Morning All. Today is the last full trading session of 2009. In relatively high volume, the rates market was able to hold yesterday's gains in overseas trading last night. As MG pointed out in MBS CLOSE last night, the move off of recent price lows/yield highs was supported with modest SEASONAL volume. I call attention to 'seasonal' because although volume was above average, it was only strong relative to other post-Christmas pre-new year trading session. At the moment the 3.375% coupon bearing semi-annual 10yr TSY note is trading flat, +0-01 at 96-17 yielding 3.799%. Notice what was once RESISTANCE is now SUPPORT. Next target in 10s is 3.76 then 3.72…if momentum really picks up we will see a test of 3.68 then 3.62. If yields move higher, support is found at 3.88%. In the…(read more)
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Original post by Adam Quinones

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