MBS AFTERNOON: Narrow And Stable Heading Into The Close

February 8th, 2010

Posted To: MBS Commentary
The market is duller than a Colts victory parade at the moment. We're dealing with a fairly standard issue "calm before the storm" that we often see on a data-limited Monday when the rest of the week contains the more significant events. The supportive trends we began to note in the last post have continued to foster a narrow range of prices with almost perfectly flat directional movement. In other words, the simple existence of a "narrow range" doesn't always mean prices aren't moving. We can see narrow ranges while still moving DIRECTIONALLY. For instance, even on a 16 tick rally, if the subsequent highs and lows are only a tick or two higher than their previous marks, the line on the chart would be fairly smooth yet still be very much higher at the end of…(read more)
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Original post by Matthew Graham

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Short Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Dependent Upon Auctions and Stocks

February 8th, 2010

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
Who Dat!!!! Congratulations to New Orleans on a well played and exciting Super Bowl victory. Mortgage rate moved a few basis points lower on Friday following the Employment Situation Report . While we have seen scattered day over day streaks of improvements, mortgages rates have failed to fall lower than 4.75% in 2010. To remind readers, as mortgage-backed securities prices move higher in price lenders are able to pass along better rates. After what seemed like a steady flow of important economic data and market moving headline news last week, the data schedule slows down in the days ahead, but headline news is always a possibility. In terms of scheduled events, no economic reports are being released today or tomorrow. On Tuesday we have the first of three mortgage rate influential Treasury…(read more)
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Original post by Victor Burek

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MBS CLOSE: Uneventful End To Uneventful Day

February 8th, 2010

Posted To: MBS Commentary
Though MBS were not quite as thinly traded as treasuries (lowest volume since the first trading day of 2010), the picture wasn't much better. At least that which is at risk on low volume days–volatility due to the trading that actually happens comprising a larger portion of the total–was not present. Quite the opposite in fact, as the the same trend that began to emerge early this afternoon remained intact through the close. In MBS, the 101-07 to 101-10 range covered almost everything since 1030 AM. That's a quiet, boring day. I move a lower trendline down to 3.57 on the 10yr yield to show that we're going out today at an even lower yield level than Friday. So don't let the entire day of slightly worse readings fool you… The net effect for both markets was FLAT. And in the…(read more)
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Original post by Matthew Graham

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